The Number That Defines This Season
Zero. Through the first three games of the 2026 season, the Las Vegas Raiders had not allowed a single point in the fourth quarter. Not one. That statistic, which made Las Vegas the first NFL team since Indianapolis and Minnesota in 2022 to accomplish that over a season’s opening three games, tells you something more precise than the 3-0 record itself. It tells you that Klint Kubiak’s team was not just winning games. It was finishing them.
The Raiders went 3-14 in 2025. They tied for the worst record in the league. Pete Carroll was hired and fired in a single season. The 2026 NFL Draft brought first overall pick Fernando Mendoza to Las Vegas, a franchise quarterback waiting in the development pipeline. The expectation was managed decline followed by eventual rebuild. Nobody outside the building was writing them into the playoff conversation before the first snap.
Then they beat Miami 27-13 on opening day. Then they went to Los Angeles and beat the Chargers. Then they beat the New Orleans Saints on the road. Heading into Week 4 on October 4 against the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs, the Las Vegas Raiders were one of five remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL.
They lost to the Chiefs 30-27. They are 3-1. And the conversation around this team has changed completely.
Kirk Cousins at 38 Is Not a Placeholder
The preseason narrative around Kirk Cousins was careful and slightly condescending. The veteran quarterback, now 38, was described as a bridge to Mendoza, a steady hand who would manage games while the real future of the franchise developed behind him on the sideline. He was expected to be adequate. He was expected to hand off the job.
Through four weeks, Cousins became the first quarterback 38 or older in NFL history to open a season with three touchdown passes in each of his first three games. Against the Chargers in Week 2, he launched multiple 40-plus-yard completions that turned a potential struggle into a statement win. In the Chiefs loss, his tight ends caught 16 of his completions for 200 yards and a touchdown against a Kansas City defense specifically designed to eliminate those options.
“Our job as coaches is to get them dialed in,” Kubiak said after the 3-0 start. The line sounds like coach-speak. It is not. What Kubiak has built in four weeks is a quarterback who understands what the system needs him to do, does not exceed it when he should not, and executes it precisely when the moment calls for it.
Cousins is also genuinely friends with Patrick Mahomes, who praised his leadership after the Chiefs won. When your opponent’s quarterback says your quarterback is the reason his team had to fight for four quarters, the bridge role has been transcended entirely.
Ashton Jeanty and the Running Game
Ashton Jeanty was the consensus first running back taken in the 2026 draft after a Heisman-caliber season at Boise State. He was also the subject of the draft position debate that follows every first-round back: is this how you build a franchise, or is it a position the NFL has devalued too thoroughly to justify premium investment?
His 102 rushing yards against Miami in Week 1 provided an early, clean answer. The run game that Kubiak built his coaching reputation on is functioning because Jeanty has the specific skill set the system requires. He is decisive, which matters in outside zone concepts. He handles pass protection assignments, which matters for Cousins’s willingness to stay in the pocket.
The Chiefs held him below his season average in Week 4. Kubiak adjusted, using Jeanty in the passing game and leveraging tight end Brock Bowers, returning from a preseason meniscus procedure, as a chess piece across formation. The adjustment worked well enough to make a 30-27 game that the Raiders led at halftime into a genuine conversation about whether they had beaten the AFC’s presumptive champion.
They did not. But they made it a conversation, and that is the most important development of the week.
Kubiak’s Fourth-Down Decision
The moment that defined Week 4 as a character-building game rather than simply a loss happened early in the third quarter. The Raiders kicked a field goal. Kansas City was flagged for illegal formation. Kubiak had a clear choice: take the three points, or accept the penalty and try for six on fourth-and-two from the Chiefs’ 18.
He accepted the penalty. The fourth-down conversion attempt failed. The Raiders did not get the points.
“I don’t regret it,” Kubiak said afterward.
That sentence carries enormous weight in how a locker room understands what its coach believes. Kubiak was not managing a lead against the Chiefs or protecting a comfortable margin. He was down and going for it because he wanted his players to know, in the most concrete possible terms, that he believed they could execute against Patrick Mahomes’s defense on the most important down in football.
The play failed. The message landed.
Andy Reid, coaching the Chiefs, was not shy afterward about his assessment of what Kubiak is building. The Raiders’ first-year head coach earned explicit respect from one of the most decorated coaches in NFL history. In Las Vegas, where the team has cycled through six head coaches since 2021, that kind of external validation changes how the building feels about itself.
What 3-1 Actually Means
The Raiders’ record through four weeks means they have already matched their halfway point from 2025, when they won three games all season. Historical data on teams that start 3-0 is reasonably encouraging: roughly 73% make the playoffs. The 3-1 number is still strong.
It also means the schedule ahead requires sustained execution against opponents who will not be the 2026 Miami Dolphins. New England comes first in Week 5. Then the Bills come to Las Vegas. The Rams. The 49ers. The Seahawks. The Broncos twice.
What the 3-1 start has established is that the Kubiak-era Raiders are legitimate in a way that preseason optimism could not confirm. Real teams go to Los Angeles and win. Real teams hold fourth-quarter leads against the Saints on the road. Real teams make the Chiefs fight for four quarters at Allegiant Stadium before holding on.
For a city that watched its football team go 3-14 last season and quietly wondered whether the NFL experiment in Las Vegas was producing the kind of team the market deserved, a 3-1 start with a coaching staff that clearly knows what it is doing and a quarterback making history for his age is not a small thing.
Allegiant Stadium has been one of the region’s most impressive buildings in search of a reason to be loud. The Chiefs game gave it one. The schedule will give it more.
Notes for Stakeholders
The Raiders’ early 2026 performance offers insights for anyone working in sports franchise development, coaching transitions, or professional sports market development in Las Vegas:
NFL teams that start 3-0 advance to the playoffs roughly 73% of the time historically, giving this Raiders squad a strong baseline probability of postseason appearance that four weeks ago would have seemed implausible.
Veteran quarterback management is a distinct organizational capability. Kubiak’s use of Cousins demonstrates that experienced quarterbacks can exceed their bridge-role framing when placed in the right system with the right supporting cast.
First-year head coaches who make aggressive decisions under pressure establish organizational culture faster than those who play conservatively. Kubiak’s fourth-down call against the Chiefs will be remembered in the locker room long after the failed conversion is forgotten.
Running back draft investment pays off most clearly when the system is designed around the player’s specific skills. Jeanty’s decisiveness and pass protection ability are precisely what Kubiak’s outside zone system rewards.
Home-field advantage develops through competitive games, not simply through attendance. The Chiefs game gave Allegiant Stadium its first genuine postseason-atmosphere moment of the Kubiak era, which compounds over subsequent home games throughout the season.
The Season Still Being Written
The Raiders lost to the best team in the AFC by three points at home after leading at halftime. They are 3-1. They have Fernando Mendoza developing behind Cousins while the veteran plays at a historical level for his age. They have Brock Bowers healthy and available as a matchup nightmare at tight end. They have Ashton Jeanty finding his footing in the NFL.
As of October 8, this is the most interesting Raiders season since 2021, and the city knows it. Whether the November schedule breaks toward genuine playoff contention or reveals the limitations of a team built around a 38-year-old quarterback and a rookie running back depends on games not yet played.
But the conversation has changed. That is what 3-1 bought.
Key Takeaways:
- The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-1 after their most promising start since 2021, including a hard-fought 30-27 loss to the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs on October 4 that the Raiders led at halftime
- The team allowed zero fourth-quarter points through its first three games, the first NFL team to accomplish that since Indianapolis and Minnesota in 2022
- Kirk Cousins, 38, became the first quarterback that age or older in NFL history to open a season with three touchdown passes in each of his first three games
- First-year head coach Klint Kubiak accepted a penalty to erase a field goal and go for it on fourth down against the Chiefs in the third quarter, choosing aggression over points in a move that defined the team’s competitive identity
- Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty ran for 102 yards in Week 1 and has contributed as both a runner and pass-game receiver, validating the draft investment in a Kubiak system built for his skill set
- Tight end Brock Bowers, returning from a preseason meniscus procedure, caught balls for 200 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs despite being their primary defensive focus
- Andy Reid praised Kubiak following the Chiefs win, providing the kind of external validation that carries weight inside a locker room that has seen six head coaches since 2021
- Fernando Mendoza, the first-overall draft pick, is developing behind Cousins while the veteran performs at a historically high level for his age
- Historical data shows roughly 73% of 3-0 NFL teams reach the playoffs, giving Las Vegas a strong baseline probability of postseason appearance
- The upcoming schedule includes New England, Buffalo, the Rams, the 49ers, the Seahawks, and two Broncos games, which will determine whether the 3-1 start represents genuine contention or a favorable early draw
